2019年11月26日,《南方能源建设》期刊主办单位中国能建广东院GEDI学术大讲堂开讲,华南理工大学电力学院教授、博士生导师蔡泽祥博士作《我国能源转型与电力系统变革 》报告。蔡泽祥教授首先结合国情与国策介绍了我国能源发展现状、发展趋势、面临挑战以及电力系统在我国能源系统中扮演角色的相应转型;然后着重介绍了电力产业的生态变革,以综合能源服务与电力产业新业态为例,描绘了未来电力系统与多行业交叉发展的趋势;同时指出能源转型背景下的能源电力系统与服务是一个撬动万亿级市场规模的最佳经济增长点,这对能源转型背景下的电力企业转型具有重要的意义;最后蔡教授分析了电力系统技术体系重构的原因,以电力自动化为视角,阐明了新形势下电力自动化技术体系的变革和我国智慧能源系统产业升级的机遇。
能源转型中电力系统的任务和作用?
● 能源转型的目标包括:能源结构的清洁化,能源消费总量的合理控制,以及能源服务的普惠便捷。
● 电力系统对能源转型的支撑作用:大规模消纳可再生能源,提高设备利用率降低网损,为多能交互提供柔性互联平台,小微能源的即插即用等。
● 能源转型背景下电力系统的生产力要素发生了变化,生产关系也必须变革。否则,就会制约生产力发展,目前面临的弃风弃光问题、火电机组效益问题等都是生产关系与生产力不相适应的表征。
● 能源体制革命是保障能源消费革命、供给革命和技术革命得以实现的基础和保障。
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为什么要重构电力系统技术体系?
● 综合能源也好、能源互联网也好、电力市场化也好,不简单是IT技术的应用和经济学家的事情,围绕这些新的电力系统形态和新的运营模式,是存在电力系统专业本身的科学问题的,我们的职责是研究这些科学问题,而不是满足于经济学家、未来学家PPT描绘的新业态、新盈利模式。
● 我们对能源转型的认识不能限于有了“光伏+石墨烯”,就可以不要电网了的朴素烂漫认识;我们对电力市场化的理解不能满足于打破垄断,让供电局日子不好过这种“愤青”水平。
● 我们要把新的电力系统形态、约束条件、优化目标、分析评价方法等用科学的方式来描述,给出定量分析结果,给出盈亏平衡点,给出市场机制的设计指引,这是一个大学问。
电力系统的发展愿景?
●电力系统的发展愿景是零边际成本电网,透明电网促使能源生产、输送、转换、消费及交易的边际成本趋零。
●可再生能源为一次能源,能源生产边际成本趋零。
●分布式能源就近获取,输送边际成本趋零。
●多种能源网融合,能源转换边际成本趋零。
●用户逐渐成为产销者,能源消费边际成本趋零。
●互联网交易和共享促进能源交易和增值服务,能源交易边际成本趋零。
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电网企业在能源电力生态系统中的位置?
● 能源电力生产系统呈现多入口、新业态趋势。这正是传统能源电力企业转型发展的机会,更是大量“圈外”企业及资本进入转型中智慧能源产业的绝佳机遇!
● 按照能源产业链的发展动向来划分,能源生态圈的参与主体分为八大部分,即能源生产、网络优化运营、储能服务、能源方案整合、数据资产运营、平台运维管理、能源及衍生品交易和能源产业金融服务。
●电网企业作为构建能源生态系统的重要主体,充当着“管道”和“平台”两种角色,应成为综合能源转型的引领者。
●能源生态系统的参与主体通过电网相互联系,电网企业可依据不同参与主体的需求,为能源生态系统的其他参与主体赋能,打造合身的增值服务。
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原标题:蔡泽祥:我国能源转型与电力系统变革